As of Friday, October 11th, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is just 25 days away. Seven swing states–Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, will decide the future of our country. These states, with 93 combined electoral votes (EVs), could vote either way, while the remaining 43 states are projected to give 226 EVs to Harris and 219 to Trump. Using polling averages and current events, I’ve predicted what I believe to be the most realistic outcome for November 5th.
Firstly, we have Arizona. The state is worth 11 EVs and RealClearPolitics polling shows Trump in the lead by 0.9%. FiveThirtyEight polls show Trump leading by 1.5%. Despite the state shifting to the Democrats over the past few decades, I believe Arizona will be a Republican flip this year.
Next is Georgia. This will be an extremely close race, as the Democratic city of Atlanta has grown by hundreds of thousands of residents in the past four years, but Biden and Harris are quite unpopular in the state. Polls show Trump leading in Georgia by 0.8%, and I think the polls will hold true on election day. Georgia’s 16 EVs will go to Trump this year.
Moving North, Michigan is the first state on this list to favor Harris. RealClearPolitics has her ahead by 0.7%, and FiveThirtyEight favors her by 0.9%. Unless something big happens in Michigan, it will be a Democratic hold this year, with a tighter race than Biden’s 2.8% lead in 2020, but a Harris victory nonetheless.
The swing state worth the least EVs this year at six, Nevada, is polling around 1% in favor of Kamala Harris right now. The Democratic city of Las Vegas, one of the fastest growing cities in the country, will likely lead Nevada into going blue this year, with the Democrats holding the state as they won in 2020.
North Carolina is the most interesting state in the 2024 election in my opinion. RealClearPolitics shows Trump ahead by 0.6%, and FiveThirtyEight has Trump ahead by 0.9%, but recently, the Republican candidate for governor, Mark Robinson, has undergone a scandal where old social media posts calling himself a “Black Nazi” have come to light. If the Democrats capitalize on this in the coming weeks, North Carolina could flip blue. Despite this, I am predicting that North Carolina’s 16 EVs will go to Trump, but North Carolina very well could be the closest margin this year.
The most valuable swing state to win in this election is Pennsylvania, worth 19 EVs. Polls are completely polarized in Pennsylvania, with RealClearPolitics saying it’s 0.3% in favor for Trump, and FiveThirtyEight saying it’s 0.6% in favor of Harris. Other polling websites are also torn on Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania will remain Democratic because of Democrats winning the Senate race there in 2022 by 5%, despite it being an unpopular year for Biden.
The final swing state, which will put either candidate over 270 EVs, is Wisconsin. The state, worth 10 EVs, has Harris in the lead by 0.5-1% in the polls, and will likely be a more comfortable victory for Harris than neighboring Michigan. Harris will win Wisconsin, and subsequently, the election.
This puts my final prediction at 276 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, and 262 for Donald Trump. Any state could change the outcome of this election, tilting it in favor of Trump, or further for Harris.
